By Herb W. Morgan, III, Efficient Market Advisors

The probability of a rate hike at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) is now greater than 75%. Still, it has been a roller coaster of a ride with a range of 80% down to 65% during the turmoil of the last few months.

It would seem the voting members of the FOMC are keenly aware of the last two instances where the Fed arguably caused recessions by raising rates too aggressively. In both the 1999-2000 and 2004-2006 hiking cycles, the Fed killed the full employment master while feeding the price stability mandate. Continue Reading Here